Look at the named XIs for this bronze-medal clash and you quickly realise one side missed the memo about resting their stars. While Sri Lanka have brought a developmental squad, Bangladesh have rolled out a serious international core. Even with Najmul Hossain Shanto returning home, fielding Litton Das, Mustafizur Rahman and Shoriful Islam gives them a massive edge.

Conditions perfectly suit that pedigree. It is a 09:00 morning start on a slow, sharply turning pitch with zero dew to ruin the grip. We just watched Sri Lanka’s inexperienced batting absolutely collapse against Indian spin. Asking them to quickly reset against Nasum Ahmed, Mahedi Hasan, and Mustafizur's cutters is a nightmare assignment.

The betting line simply undervalues the sheer gap in experience. Bangladesh have the ideal bowling attack to dismantle an untested lineup, making the outright win at 1.514 a clear mismatch worth backing.

On a slow, turning surface, the spin match-up matters more than Bangladesh’s batting depth. Pakistan’s spin unsettled Bangladesh’s top order, while Sri Lanka’s Arachchige and Ratnayake made early inroads against India.

Hridoy and Mosaddek steadied Bangladesh, so Sri Lanka will need more than early wickets. But if their spinners keep the total modest, the chase is possible; there is no evening dew to ease the batting conditions.

I’m backing Sri Lanka at 2.546. Bangladesh’s pace is a real threat, but their reputation and depth leave too little value in the favourite, while Sri Lanka have a clear route to make this close.

The main risk is that Shoriful and Mustafizur remove Sri Lanka’s openers before spin can shape the game. Litton and Hridoy could also handle the turning ball better than they did against Pakistan.