Afghanistan sit top of Group A after beating Japan, but that was the weakest team in the pool. Their top three struggled against movement and grip; only Rasooli and Ishaq managed a late recovery.

This is an emerging Afghanistan side without Rashid Khan, Gurbaz or Nabi. Nepal bring a familiar T20 group: Airee, Paudel, Lamichhane, Karan KC and Sompal Kami. Nepal to win at 2.547 looks generous for the better bowling attack.

I considered Afghanistan Under 149.5 instead. But if Rasooli, Janat and Najibullah anchor a full innings on a holding surface, they could still reach 145, making the outright price safer.

The risk is rust. Nepal have not played yet, and Afghanistan’s spinners looked composed. Rain raises variance too, turning this into a powerplay contest where Afghan bowlers already proved effective.