Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bowl, so India bat first. The market has not priced the toss yet: the match-winner prices barely shifted, while India’s team-total market was unavailable before the toss.

Before the toss: not offered. After the toss: Under 183.5 at 1.97. Korogi’s 16-match T20 sample points to a slow, spin-friendly surface, with first-innings scoring around 108; even allowing for India’s stronger batting, a score in the 130s or 140s looks more plausible than 184.

India bat without a chase target, which is a point in the Over’s favour, but they would need 9.2 an over to clear the line. The sample may not reflect these conditions, and the men’s boundary dimensions are unverified; India’s aggressive top order is another reason not to treat the Under as certain.

India Under 183.5 at 1.97 is the pick.