The market is overthinking this one, blindly applying the usual Asian Games discount and assuming Bangladesh sent a shadow squad. They haven't. With established World Cup starters like Litton Das and Najmul Hossain Shanto padding up, this is a seriously formidable side. That makes the 1.142 on a straight Bangladesh win much better than fair.

I know exactly what a grippy, slow wicket feels like, and it's an absolute dream for this bowling group. Mustafizur Rahman’s cutters on a spongy, holding surface are going to be practically unplayable for Malaysia. Add Rishad Hossain's wrist-spin to the mix, and the underdog batters will have simply no pace to work with.

Sure, rain is looming in Nisshin, and a shortened shootout always adds variance that gives an underdog a sniff. Monday's quarter-finals were completely washed out. But Bangladesh’s attack is perfectly tailored to suffocate any run rate in these exact conditions. The bookies have priced a weaker squad, so we happily take the gift.