Nisshin has not been a free-scoring ground in the group games: spin has squeezed the middle overs, and Hong Kong have already played here. Pakistan arrive without a match in the tournament, with five batting options coming from Caribbean franchise commitments into camp.

That leaves Pakistan’s reputation doing more work than this XI’s evidence. Hong Kong to win at 4.955 is the play: Shukla offers a new-ball threat, while Murtaza and Ghazanfar can squeeze the middle if the surface grips.

Rain adds uncertainty, not a clear toss edge; there is no evening dew, and a shortened game could limit the time Pakistan’s deeper batting has to impose itself. I’m leaving totals alone: difficult scoring conditions and fragile top orders pull that market in both directions.

The danger is Hong Kong’s own top order: early wickets against Malaysia and Oman left Hayat rebuilding, and Pakistan have Wasim Jnr, Abrar Ahmed and Moqim to exploit another failure. The strip is unconfirmed and neither XI is settled, so this is a modest position.