Boland Rocks vs Mpumalanga: Paarl favourites against a Rhinos side still searching for a full innings
Saturday evening in Paarl brings a mismatch on paper. Boland Rocks meet Mpumalanga in Pool B of the CSA T20 Challenge at Boland Park, first ball at 18:00 local time (19:00 in Moscow). The hosts are third and comfortable. The Rhinos are fourth and anxious. The question is whether Mpumalanga's batting can last 20 overs against a Boland attack that has been bowling sides out.
Boland: three wins, two washouts, no panic
Boland sit third in Pool B on 17 points with a net run rate of +0.962. Their last two scheduled games have both ended without a result, against Western Province at Newlands and Eastern Storm at home. The weather has stopped them more often than opponents have.
When they have played, the batting has looked sorted. Six days ago against South Africa Emerging Players at LC de Villiers Oval, they chased 152 with 21 balls to spare. Neil Brand made 76 off 40, and Lleyton Troskie's 3/18 barely slowed them down. Brand kept the chase ahead of the rate even as wickets fell around him (Cricket Fanatics Magazine).
Brand arrived from the Titans this season, along with seamer Lizaad Williams. Ruan Terblanche has returned from South Western Districts. Clyde Fortuin is expected to be missing, listed by Club Cricket SA as retired (Club Cricket SA). Blayde Capell and Gavin Kaplan have been opening, which leaves Brand free to bat wherever the innings needs him.
Kaplan is the quiet constant. He made 58* in the one-run chase of 161 against the Knights and 38 in the 187/5 against the KwaZulu-Natal Inland Tuskers, where Lehan Botha added 54 off 32. Lower down, Imran Manack and Ferisco Adams can hit, so the innings does not stop when the top order goes.
The bowling has been the real asset. Siyabonga Mahima took 4/20 as the Tuskers were bowled out for 124, Adams chipped in with 2/11, and Glenton Stuurman went for just 17 in four overs against the Emerging side. Akhona Mnyaka and Dane Piedt fill out an attack that gives batters very few easy overs.
Mpumalanga: one good evening, then a collapse
Mpumalanga are fourth on 6 points with a net run rate of -0.433, and the sides behind them are close. Coach Mbasa Gqadushe stated the target plainly: "we will aim for a top four finish" (Club Cricket SA). This is the sort of game that decides whether that target holds.
A week ago at White River, their batting gave way. Chasing a modest 137 against Western Province, they were all out for 111 in 17.2 overs. George Linde took 4/18 and Oliver Whitehead 2/16. Karabo Mogotsi top-scored with 23, which tells you how little anyone else managed.
The bowling was not the problem that day. Thabile Hlatuka and Bryn Brokensha took two wickets each and kept Western Province to 136/7. The trouble was batting under spin pressure for long enough to finish the job.
The template for a win is the Tuskers game on 2 October. Batting first, Mpumalanga posted 159/4, with Brokensha smashing 44* off 21 and Benjamin van Niekerk adding 38* off 26 at the death. Themba Maupa (2/19) and Jon Hinrichsen (2/27) then bowled the Tuskers out for 142.
Their opening game against the Titans was a six-over rain sprint, lost when Sinethemba Qeshile hit 56 off 18. Ruben du Toit and Garnett Tarr showed some intent that night, and Tarr, signed from Northern Cape, adds experience with the bat and the gloves. Chief executive Jaco Visagie has also warned about the workload: "We will have to be clever about who we play, who we rest" (Club Cricket SA).
Why Boland should win, and how Mpumalanga could stop them
The market is clear: Boland Rocks at 1.25, Mpumalanga at 3.99. That makes the hosts heavy favourites, and I agree. Boland have the better top order, more finishers, and a bowling attack that has already bowled out a side Mpumalanga only just beat.
The key battle is Boland's spin through the middle overs against the Rhinos' middle order. Linde showed exactly how to unpick Mpumalanga, and Mahima has the tools to do the same (SuperSport). If the visitors are three or four down by the tenth over, Brokensha will have to perform a rescue, not a finish.
The toss matters to one side more than the other. Boland have chased 161 and 152 comfortably this month. Mpumalanga's only win came batting first, and their last chase collapsed. Bowling first and chasing would suit Boland; setting a target is the Rhinos' best route.
Conditions add a little uncertainty. Saturday is forecast to be cool and cloudy, with rain or drizzle mostly earlier in the day, so the outfield needs to dry in time. The game starts before sunset and finishes under lights. Boland Park is also closed to spectators during facility upgrades (Club Cricket SA). Boland will have the familiar ground but not the home crowd.
My view: Boland, fairly comfortably, unless Mpumalanga bat first, survive the spin, and give Brokensha the last four overs. That is a lot of conditions for a single upset.
