Lumbini Lions won the toss and chose to bowl, so Kathmandu Gorkhas must set a target against the stingiest attack in the tournament. Their own spinner Santosh Yadav says this Kirtipur surface helps spin, and no side has made more than 133 against Lumbini.

Kathmandu's team total was not offered before the toss and opened afterwards at 152.5, with 1.87 on both the over and the under. The match-winner prices barely moved: Kathmandu went from 2.056 to 2.075 and Lumbini from 1.755 to 1.78. The bookmaker has not yet priced in what the toss means for this innings, and that gap is our window.

The first-innings tempo here points to the high 140s over a full twenty overs, before Lumbini's spinners and Trumpelmann's new-ball threat are counted. Kathmandu's only innings batting first ended 115 all out. Only a long assault on the spin from Warner beats this line, and forecast showers lean towards fewer runs.

The bet: Kathmandu under 152.5 at 1.87.

Pokhara Avengers won the toss and chose to bowl, so Chitwan Rhinos bat first in Kirtipur. The match odds shifted right away: Chitwan Rhinos drifted from 1.62 to 1.69, and Pokhara Avengers shortened from 2.279 to 2.21.

Chitwan's team total was not offered before the toss. It opened only afterwards, with the under at 1.8 and the over at 1.95, both at 154.5. That line is where the bookmaker shows how he read the decision to bowl first.

The direction is right. Being sent in should cost Chitwan something, and the match odds reflect that. The problem is the size of the adjustment. The market has moved too far, and setting the total at 154.5 asks a side batting first, with no target to pace against, to clear a mark that looks a touch high.

That leaves the value on the other side. The pick is Chitwan Rhinos under 154.5 runs at 1.8. The edge is modest, so stake accordingly.

Karnali Yaks won the toss and chose to bowl, so Sudur Paschim Royals bat first at Kirtipur in a lunchtime game with no dew to worry about. The winner market shifted modestly towards the chasing side, Sudurpaschim drifting from 1.869 to 1.98 and Karnali shortening from 1.919 to 1.856.

The Sudurpaschim team total was not offered before the toss and opened only afterwards at 157.5, with under and over both at 1.87. That even split reads like a generic batting-first par rather than a number built for this lineup, and the market has not priced the toss into it yet.

Several of their top order have done little this season, Rutherford may be gone and Haider Ali was never cleared. Karnali bring tight spin and wicket-taking seam through Watt, Thakuri, Sompal and Talat, on a pitch that slows as the innings wears on. Even an average side tends to finish below this line here, and Sudurpaschim have already been bowled out once.

The pick is Sudurpaschim under 157.5 at 1.87. The main risk is a late overseas batter added to their eleven.

Afghanistan won the toss and chose to bowl, so Zimbabwe bat first in Sharjah. Once the batting order was set, the question was whether the bookmaker would reset its numbers for a Zimbabwe innings that now comes first.

It did not. The Zimbabwe team total was not offered before the toss and opened afterwards at 1.885 on 164.5. The match runs line stayed at 329.5, priced at 1.85 both before and after the toss. The winner market barely moved, with Afghanistan drifting from 1.319 to 1.325 and Zimbabwe from 3.35 to 3.44.

That is the opening. The new Zimbabwe line was set as if the toss had not happened, and the gap between the batting order and the price is the edge. With the under at 1.856, the over pays slightly more.

We take Zimbabwe over 164.5 runs at 1.885. The edge is modest, but the market has not yet caught up with the toss.

India won the toss and chose to bowl, so New Zealand bat first at Eden Park. That frees their innings from any chase arithmetic, and the bookmaker reacted hard.

Before the toss, New Zealand's team total stood at 190.5, with the under at 1.748. Now the line has been moved to 200.5, with the under at 1.95 and the over shortened to 1.8. That is a full ten runs and a switch of favourite to the over. The match winner drifted towards India, from 1.658 to 1.6, roughly what the dew and the chase edge deserve.

The direction is right; the size is not. The 190.5 already assumed New Zealand might bat first, and the chasing scenario only pulled it down a few runs. An honest par sits in the mid-190s, not above 200. The ground's modest first-innings tempo, grip for the slower bowlers and New Zealand's own batting-first record all argue against clearing 200 routinely. The short straight boundaries and India's leaky seam were already priced in.

The bet is New Zealand under 200.5 at 1.95. If Kuldeep comes in for a seamer, it strengthens. Bhuvneshwar keeping his place is the main risk.

Zimbabwe won the toss and chose to bowl again, so Afghanistan bat first at Sharjah. The bookmaker answered mostly with a new market: before the toss there was no Afghanistan team total at all, and once the order was set it opened at 181.5, with the under at 1.795 and the over at 1.95.

That number goes too far. The last pre-toss match total, the over on 329.5 at 2.2, pointed to a first innings in the high 160s, while the winner market barely moved, Afghanistan from 1.288 to 1.296. The direction is right, but 181.5 is too high for this surface.

The opener on this ground was sticky, with seamers rewarded for a hard length and spinners getting stop and turn. Afghanistan's 177 was all out, rescued by Shahidullah and lifted by late bursts from Ijaz and Rashid, and Nabi and Rasooli are now missing.

A flat fresh strip and short square boundaries are the risk, but the value sits with Afghanistan under 181.5.

Zimbabwe won the toss and chose to bowl, so Afghanistan bat first in Sharjah. Once the order was set, the bookmaker leaned hard towards a big Afghan innings.

The Afghanistan team total was not on the board before the toss. It opened afterwards at 179.5, with the under at 1.89 and the over at 1.85. Before the toss, the match total had been set at 309.5, with the over at 2.1, and that market came down at the toss. In the winner market Afghanistan drifted from 1.288 to 1.345, with Zimbabwe shortening from 3.765 to 3.305.

Batting first does suit Afghanistan, so the direction is right. The size is not. A line of 179.5 asks for a far bigger share of the runs than the pre-toss match total suggested, and that overreach is where the value sits.

The bet is Afghanistan under 179.5 runs at 1.89. The risk is plain: one strong batting innings would clear the line.

Mpumalanga Rhinos won the toss and chose to bowl, so Boland bat first at Boland Park, losing the chasing role they have won in both times this season. The match odds shifted sensibly, Boland drifting from 1.219 to 1.27 and Mpumalanga Rhinos firming from 4.345 to 3.82. That looks about right, and there is nothing worth backing there.

Boland's team total was not offered before the toss. It opened afterwards at 175.5, with both sides of it at 1.83, and that number looks borrowed from Boland's batting-first scores at Newlands and City Oval. The bookmaker has not priced what the toss actually created: a first innings here before sunset, in cool, cloudy air after daytime drizzle.

This ground runs at about 162 for a full innings, and Boland made 164/4 on their last visit. Maupa, Maphaka and Hinrichsen have bowled tightly, and Mpumalanga Rhinos held their completed opponents to 136 and 142. A par in the mid-to-high 160s makes the under the side to take.

The bet is Boland under 175.5 at 1.83. Brand, Kaplan and Capell are in form, and a flying start could clear the line, so this is a small stake.

West Indies won the toss and chose to bowl, so India bat first at Indore. That hands the deeper batting side an innings with no chase to cap it, on a flat ground with short boundaries and a West Indies attack that leaked runs in Ranchi.

Before the toss the runs line sat at 394.5, with the over at 1.91. After it, the bookmaker moved the line to 409.5 and priced the over at 2.2. The old number blended in a lower-scoring script, with West Indies batting first and India knocking off a modest target early, as in Lucknow. That script is gone, yet the over is still priced as the less likely outcome.

India's own team total, newly opened at 231.5, tells the same story. Anything near that leaves West Indies needing well under 180 to stay under, and the evening dew should help the chase. The risk is a sub-200 India innings or a Lucknow-style collapse, with Mayank's early pace a real threat to Pooran and Hetmyer. Our bet: over 409.5 runs.

West Indies won the toss and chose to bowl, so India bat first in Ranchi and the visitors will chase under the evening dew. The match odds moved the right way: India drifted from 1.226 to 1.345 and West Indies came in from 4.36 to 3.325, which leaves nothing to back there.

The overreach is in India's team total. It was not offered before the toss and opened afterwards at 219.5, with the under at 1.875 and the over at 1.864. Yet before the toss the match runs line stood at 379.5 with the over at 2. That points to a first innings nearer 200, and India average 189 batting first.

India bat while the new ball swings, and later in the innings the surface tends to grip for spin. The dew arrives only for the chase. Samson's lean run and a possibly rotated XI add to the doubts. Under 219.5 at 1.875 is the bet.

The edge is small. A leaky West Indies seam attack and the threat of rain keep the stake light.