Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe, 3rd T20I: Sharjah finale as Raza's Chevrons play without Evans

The T20I leg of this tour ends on Sunday evening at Sharjah, with the first ball at 18:30 UAE time (17:30 in Moscow). Afghanistan cannot lose the series, so the stakes are about selection and pride. Zimbabwe want to take some confidence into the two Tests. Afghanistan's top order has wobbled in both games so far, and their lower order has bailed them out each time.

Afghanistan: brittle up top, loud down below

Afghanistan have a habit of losing early wickets and winning the argument later. In the series opener they slipped early and Rahmanullah Gurbaz never found any rhythm. Shahidullah Kamal then rebuilt with 46 off 42 and Ijaz Ahmadzai blew the innings open with 52 off 22. Rashid Khan finished it off, and 177 was more than Zimbabwe could manage.

The second game followed the same script with more drama. Brad Evans removed Gurbaz and Mohammad Akram almost at once, and Ibrahim Zadran and Shahidullah went before the innings had settled. Azmatullah Omarzai and Ijaz then took the middle and late overs apart. Omarzai explained it plainly: "we have to go for boundaries, otherwise the pressure is coming more on us" (Cricbuzz).

Ibrahim, who leads this side instead of Rashid, sums it up as "we can change the game from any situation" (Cricbuzz). That is fair, but rescuing a collapse is still a workaround. Coach Richard Pybus has made the real target clear: "We need to look at our dot ball average and we've got to look at strike rates" (Cricbuzz).

The batting has also been deliberately refreshed. Mohammad Nabi and Darwish Rasooli were left out, Ijaz and Shahidullah were recalled, and Akram joined the main group after his Asian Games introduction (Wisden). On the evidence so far, Ijaz has taken his chance with some force.

Rotation is the other theme, and it is a policy rather than dead-rubber housekeeping. Fazalhaq Farooqi and Noor Ahmad were rested for the second game so that Abdullah Ahmadzai and Fareed Ahmad Malik could play. Ibrahim linked these chances to building towards the next T20 World Cup. Farooqi's 3/13 in the opener shows what returns to the new-ball attack if he plays.

The unfinished bowling job is closing out an innings. In the last game Afghanistan controlled the middle overs but let Raza's chase stay alive for too long. The supporting bowlers and the late execution did not finish it cleanly (ICC).

Zimbabwe: good starts with the ball, then the trouble begins

Zimbabwe's seamers have done their job early in both games. The problem comes once Afghanistan's middle order arrives and the change bowlers are on. In the opener Newman Nyamhuri took 4/31 and Evans 2/34, yet Afghanistan still reached 177. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 140, with Ryan Burl top-scoring on 32 off 24.

Head coach Justin Sammons was unhappy with how passive the batting was in that chase. He said some batters had strayed from the plan and left too much for the finish: "We can't wait for them to make mistakes" (The Herald). Mujeeb and Rashid removed the set batters before they could accelerate, and the innings never built any momentum.

In the second game the intent was there. Innocent Kaia and Brian Bennett started brightly, but the middle order slid away after they fell. Raza counterattacked through visible discomfort in the humidity, with debutant Tafadzwa Tsiga calmly supporting him (Cricbuzz). Legspinner Vincent Masekesa also made his T20I debut in that match.

Raza was angrier afterwards than his numbers might suggest. He spoke of "the complacency that I saw from some of the boys" when Afghanistan were in serious trouble, and promised to deal with it in the dressing room (The Herald). Zimbabwe do not lack fight. Their problem is keeping their focus once they have the upper hand.

The squad has also lost players. Evans's stint was always due to end before the finale, and Kundai Matigimu is his designated replacement, though Matigimu has already played alongside him. Blessing Muzarabani's workload is being managed with the Tests in mind, which Sammons called "purely a load management issue". Richard Ngarava is still recovering from a back injury.

Raza's own bowling is under scrutiny as well. His spells have gone for runs, and Afghanistan have attacked him rather than just seeing him off (ICC). The Chevrons' September form adds a mixed picture. In Windhoek, Kaia's 72 off 42 beat Namibia, but South Africa beat them twice comfortably.

Who wins at Sharjah: Afghanistan, unless Zimbabwe keep their grip

Don't expect a typical slow, spin-dominated Sharjah pitch here. The opener was played on a fresh strip with some grass for the seamers and a sticky surface early on. The second game produced plenty of clean hitting, and with the short square boundaries a good total is very possible. Survive the new ball and the runs can come quickly.

Dew may arrive later in the evening, and both captains have said they prefer to bowl first. Afghanistan, however, defended a total comfortably in the opener, so winning the toss is no guarantee. The weather should be warm and dry.

The market sees a clear favourite: Afghanistan at 1.30, Zimbabwe at 3.50. I agree with the direction, if not quite the size of the gap. Afghanistan have more batting depth through Ijaz, Omarzai and Rashid, and a spin attack Zimbabwe have struggled to score against. Zimbabwe's route to an upset is to take early wickets again, as they have in both games, and then keep the pressure on through the middle overs. That middle phase is where Evans will be missed most, and where they must avoid the complacency Raza complained about.